For the first time in ages, several blockbusters are actually contenders to win the Oscar for best picture. But first they must be nominated.
The dark comedy “The Banshees of Inisherin” and Steven Spielberg’s autobiographical coming-of-age drama “The Fabelmans” scored high at the Golden Globes, while the sci-fi hit “Everything Everywhere All at Once” topped the Screen Actors Guild pack alongside ” Banshees.” But when the field for the 95th Academy Awards (airing March 12 on ABC) is announced Tuesday morning, the “Top Gun” and “Black Panther” sequels loom as heavyweight contenders that could spice up an awards season that’s somewhat returned to normal. . after a few years ravaged by a pandemic.
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While everything seems to fall into place for likely nominees, that’s usually just when chaos is just around the corner. Let’s separate the potential contenders from the pretenders in the six main Oscar categories:
- Blockbusters compete for the top spots in the field with the best shots.
- It is a two-person race for best actress and a talented trio for best actor.
- Supporting stars Angela Bassett and Ke Huy Quan are the easiest bets of them all.
Best photo
Best: The producers and the directors usually know what’s going on before the rest of us — the vast majority of their nominees make the Oscar cut. So expect the shoo-ins to be “Fabelmans,” “Banshees,” “Everything Everywhere,” “Top Gun: Maverick,” and “Tár,” all of which are Producers Guild of America and Directors Guild of America nods. ‘Elvis’, with nominations for the Globe, PGA and British Academy Film Awards to his name, also has a good shot, as does ‘Babylon’, which boasts Globe and Screen Actors Guild ensemble honors.
The rest: The high-profile PGA nominees “Avatar: The Way of Water,” “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,” and “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery” seem more poised to take the final three spots than the polarizing “The Whale,” though don’t count the love for Brendan Fraser. Other opportunities include the popular Indian action epic “RRR”, BAFTA leading “All Quiet on the Western Front” and the SAG nominated “Women Talking”. or “Top Gun” falters.
Best Actor
Best: This looks set to be a three-guy race between Golden Globe winners Austin Butler (“Elvis”) and Colin Farrell (“Banshees”) plus “Whale” star Fraser, who scored extra momentum during awards season with his heartfelt speech after the winning the Critics Choice award. It’s safe to say those guys are locks, especially with Screen Actors Guild and BAFTA nominations.
The rest: In the past two Oscar cycles, the SAG and Oscar contingents for best actors have matched exactly, which is a boon for SAG nominees Bill Nighy (“Living”) — who also got a BAFTA nod — and Adam Sandler (” hustle”). Sandler still doesn’t have an Oscar nomination, so the Academy might consider it a career attaboy. But when they don’t, waiting in the wings to snag a spot are newcomers like BAFTA nominee Paul Mescal (“Aftersun”) and two Globe contenders, Diego Calva (“Babylon”) and Jeremy Pope (“The Inspection”). “). Then there’s Tom Cruise, the face of “Top Gun” who probably has a few voters for him.
Best Actress
Best: Cate Blanchett (“Tár”) and Michelle Yeoh (“Everything Everywhere”) made their way through awards season with Globe wins and SAG nominations, and that inevitable showdown comes at the Oscars because, barring some mishap in the multiverse , they are in.
The rest: The other three spots are less clear. Oscar winner Viola Davis (“The Woman King”) has put together a nice resume, with SAG, Globe and BAFTA nods, and fellow SAG nominees Danielle Deadwyler (“Till”) and Ana de Armas (“Blonde”) are standing by. also in the mix. Michelle Williams – who probably would have done better this season as a supporting contender – has a chance thanks to “Fabelmans” momentum. Also looking out are Globe nominees Margot Robbie (“Babylon”) and Olivia Colman (“Empire of Light”).
Best Supporting Actor
Best: No one in Hollywood today is as beloved as “Everything Everywhere” star/Globe winner/SAG nominee Ke Huy Quan for his comeback story and overall Cinderella mojo. At least one actor runs the table every year, and Quan is the best bet of this Oscar class. Probably three more slots: the “Banshees” duo of Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan and “The Good Nurse” antagonist Eddie Redmayne, each of which garnered SAG, Globe, and BAFTA nominations.
The rest: For that last remaining spot – or maybe two, given that “Good Nurse” isn’t exactly a major award winner – SAG nominee Paul Dano has a shot at “Fabelmans.” His co-star Judd Hirsch is also a possibility: The longtime Emmy-winning actor has only been nominated for an Oscar once, for ’80s’ “Ordinary People.” Brian Tyree Henry (“Causeway”), who, like Hirsch, was nominated for Critics Choice, and BAFTA nominee Micheal Ward (“Empire of Light”) are also in the running.
Best Supporting Actress
Best:Angela Bassett rules over Wakanda and, so far, the lead up to this category, which seems to be the acting field that’s moving the most. The ‘Black Panther’ star won gold from the Globes and Critics Choice Awards and scored SAG and BAFTA nominations. Kerry Condon (“Banshees”) and Jamie Lee Curtis (“Everything Everywhere”) — still chasing her first Oscar nomination after decades in the business — are also safe bets, with each of them being SAG, Globe, Critics Choice. – and earn BAFTA nominations.
The rest: What’s left is pretty much free for anyone with a bunch of talented contenders. Curtis’ co-star Stephanie Hsu received a SAG nomination for her breakout role. Hong Chau (“The Whale”) impressed the SAG and BAFTA contingents, while Dolly de Leon (“Triangle of Sadness”) and Carey Mulligan (“She Said”) have Globe and BAFTA nominations in their favor. And don’t forget Janelle Monáe (“Glass Onion”) or Jessie Buckley (“Women Talking”), both Critics Choice-nominated luminaries in acclaimed ensembles.
Best director
Best: Each year, four out of five DGA nominees make it to the category by an uncanny degree. In other words, things are looking pretty groovy for World Champion Spielberg, Critics Choice-winning duo Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (“Everything Everywhere”), Todd Field (“Tár”), Martin McDonagh (“Banshees”) and Joseph Kosinski (“Top Gun: Maverick”).
The rest: So who is the odd one out? Probably Kosinski, since his best photo contender is the only one not to win any major prizes to date. Sarah Polley (“Women Talking”) could take his place and avoid an all-male field after two consecutive wins by female filmmakers. James Cameron has a chance at a puncher thanks to the success of his ‘Avatar’ sequel. Baz Luhrmann (“Elvis”) or SS Rajamouli (“RRR”) could work their way through the wave of popularity for their films. But perhaps a surprisingly dark horse will emerge from the BAFTA slate, including Park Chan-wook (“Decision to Leave”), Edward Berger (“All Quiet on the Western Front”) and Gina Prince-Bythewood (“The Woman King” ).
Learn more about this year’s Oscar nominees
ranked:All Steven Spielberg movies (including ‘The Fabelmans’)
‘The whale’:Brendan Fraser wants to change the hearts and minds of people with obesity
‘The Banshees of Inisherin’ review:Colin Farrell and Brendan Gleeson bring their own fire to dark comedy
Ke Huy Quan:‘Indiana Jones’ star waited ‘more than 30 years’ for ‘Everything Everywhere’ role
