Baseball Hall of Fame 2023 Announcement: Date, Time, TV Channel, Watch Online, Storylines, Prediction

The results of the BBWAA ballot for the 2022 Baseball Hall of Fame class will be announced Tuesday night. Much of the intrigue in this vote will revolve around the odds of Scott Rolen making it, the winnings of various players (most notably Todd Helton), and how Alex Rodríguez and Carlos Beltrán fare.

The the full ballot paper for 2023 can be viewed here. The Rules: A player is eligible to be put on the ballot after five years of retirement. Players who receive at least 75 percent of the returned ballots from qualified BBWAA voters gain access to the Hall of Fame. Anyone who falls below five percent is eliminated from the vote. Those between five and 75 percent can stay on the ballot for up to 10 years. BBWAA members who are active and in good standing for at least 10 years can vote for zero to 10 players each year.

No matter what happens in the BBWAA ballot, there’s already one new Hall of Famer in the Class of 2023: Fred McGriff. He made it through the Vote of the Contemporary Era Committee at the Winter Meetings.

Here are the details for Tuesday’s selection show:

Announcing the 2023 Baseball Hall of Fame class

  • Time: 6 p.m. ET | Date: Tuesday, January 24
  • TV channel: MLB Network (coverage begins at 4 p.m. ET and lasts four hours)
  • Live stream: fuboTV (free trial)

Below are six storylines to look forward to as the vote totals are revealed Tuesday night. NOTE: When I mention “polls” I am talking about Ryan Thibodaux’s ballot tracker (it’s not so much a poll as ballot collecting, but this is the easiest way to succinctly frame it).

1. Is this the year of Rolen?

Scott Rolen’s climb in the mood has a “when, not if” feel. It’s actually more than feeling. Last month, I’ve been going through recent historical voting trends to show that Rolen has an overwhelming chance to get in.

It still matters if it’s this year or next or the year after that. First, from a human perspective, Rolen is certainly excited to come in and if he just misses the cut, it’s another year of waiting. In terms of the grand scheme of Hall of Fame voting, it’s a spot on the ballot and clearing it helps every other legitimate candidate. Don’t forget that voters have a maximum of 10 places on their ballot and that some voters in the Recital Hall artificially limit themselves further. Basically, the faster Rolen gets off the ballot, the easier it is for every other player to make a profit – including next year’s newcomers like Adrián Beltré, Joe Mauer and Chase Utley.

Polls show that Rolen has a good chance of reaching the required 75 percent, but he seems to have a decent chance of falling just short. He was at 71 percent in the polls last year and in the actual vote he turned out to be 63.2 percent. Right now he sits at 79.2 percent in polls and if there’s a similar shortfall in private votes, he’ll be just a few percent shy of making it.

Like I said, it’s getting close. This is where most of the drama is for Tuesday night’s vote.

2. Still low numbers for A-Rod?

A bar has a polarizing housing. We already know that. I firmly believe that this is a huge year in voting for A-Rod. If he makes big profits, there’s a chance he’ll make it down the hall. If he doesn’t, he’ll probably end up in Bonds Land. I went much deeper into the theory here.

The numbers right now don’t bode well for A-Rod. Opinion polls show he has only received two votes from last year (when he was 161 votes shy of inauguration). It’s always possible that there’s a stockpile of non-public votes for A-Rod, but there weren’t any last year. At the moment it looks like he will drop below 40 per cent and if that is the case it is hard to see him making up enough ground to move forward to get to 75 per cent.

3. How does the sign-stealing scandal affect Beltrán?

For years we were able to get a general idea of ​​how the players connected to PEDs would be treated at the voting body in general. With Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens, we have two all-time greats who never tested positive in testing, but were strongly connected. In Rafael Palmeiro and Manny Ramirez, we’ve had players who put offensive numbers in the Hall of Fame but tested positive. In A-Rod, well, you know.

However, we don’t have a good comparison to this voting body for Beltrán, and it could be a step-by-step guide to how things will unfold for Jose Altuve and others down the road. Here is my extensive review of his case and the matter of the plate-stealing scandal.

Polls show him about 15 percent above A-Rod at 55.7 to 40.4, so that’s probably a good sign for Beltrán. There have been a few voters who have written that they withheld a vote for him this year, but would think about it again next year. If he can get about 50 percent of the vote, I estimate, he has a chance to get in later. If he gets closer to A-Rod, shall we say low-40s, he’ll probably last another 10 years.

Aside from seeing if Rolen comes in or not, this is the storyline that will grab my attention the most on Tuesday night.

4. Helton on the move

But what if Rolen isn’t the only player with a shot at making it?

Last year, Helton received 52 percent of the vote compared to Rolen’s 63.2 percent, but Helton has made significant gains. He has already won 32 votes and has even passed Rolen, with 79.8 percent. It would be a great leap forward, but it really looks like the voting body as a whole has warmed up a lot for Helton’s candidacy.

His case is a bit polarizing, but not because of scandals. He played his entire career at Coors Field as his home. I have investigated the matter here.

If there’s a big shake-up on Tuesday night, it’s Helton becoming a Hall of Famer.

5. Watch for profits

In addition to the players mentioned above, let’s keep an eye on the following players:

  • Billy Wagner: After jumping nearly 30 points in two years to 46.4 for the 2021 vote, Wagner made more modest gains to 51 percent last year. Still, polls show that he has garnered 29 votes this voting cycle. This is its eighth year and a great opportunity to take a leap into realistic territory with all the ballots from the last ballot.
  • Gary Sheffield: After a huge two-year jump to 40.6 per cent in the 2021 election, Sheffield stagnated again to exactly 40.6 per cent. This is his ninth year on the ballot and he needs a big jump to have an even shot at distance next year. Opinion polls show 26 votes won so far, so he may be on his way, although realistically the lack of winnings last year killed him.
  • Andrew Jones: Little more than an afterthought hanging on the ballot in his first two years, Jones took 19.4 percent in 2020, 33.9 percent in 2021 and 41.1 percent last year. Now on his sixth ballot, the tracker has allowed him to get 24 more votes. Looks like he’ll surpass 50 percent or maybe even 55? If the latter is the case, it is well on its way to final anchoring.
  • Bobby Abreu: He received just 8.6 percent of the vote last year, but has garnered 12 votes in polls so far. It’s his fourth attempt.
  • Andy Petitette: In his fourth round of voting last year, Pettitte received 10.7 percent of the vote and this time he has won 13 votes.
  • Jimmy Rollins: He received 9.4 percent of the vote on his debut last year and this time has won five votes.
  • Mark Buhrle: He stayed above the threshold (5.8 percent last year) on each of his first two attempts, garnering nine votes.

Wagner and Jones would be the greats to watch while Buehrle and Rollins may barely survive.

6. Who falls off?

  • Jeff Kent: It’s his swan song; its 10th and final year. Even with a decent rise in polls over the last year, it’s highly unlikely he’ll even make it to 60 percent. I have detailed here that his case is likely to do much better in committee and how this is a blessing in disguise for him.
  • Torii Hunter: With only 5.3 percent last year in his first attempt, Hunter barely survived. His public gains are modest enough to believe there is a chance he falls below 5 percent.
  • Francis Rodriguez: It’s K-Rod’s first year and it looks like he’ll survive it, but it’s probably very close. Opinion polls show that he has about nine percent, but in conclusion I think he will lose some before the vote is announced.
  • Omar Vizquel: He will probably survive. He even votes with K-Rod, but the remaining Vizquel voters are almost all private. He gained almost 14 percent last year between tracking the ballots and the actual voting results. However, he is still dead in the water as to his chances of making it to the Hall, here in his sixth attempt.
  • None of the remaining first-timers on the ballot have received a public vote yet. They are Bronson Arroyo, Matt Cain, R. D. Dickey, Jacoby Ellsbury, Andrew Ethier, JJ Hardie, John Lackey, Mike Naples, Johnny Peralta, Houston street, Jerry Weaver and Jason Wert. Even if a few of them get one or two votes, they’re all one-offs.

Of those facing the 5 percent threshold, I predict Hunter will fall off while K-Rod and Vizquel survive.

The only other person on the ballot that I haven’t named yet is Manny Ramirez. He will most likely remain in no man’s land with Vizquel, albeit for different reasons. He received 28.9 percent of the vote last year and his polls show stagnation.

7. Prediction

Back on November 22, I predicted this class would be McGriff and Rolen. I made it to the committee vote with McGriff going in alone, so let’s make it two for two to get the BBWAA one correct as well. Rolen goes in and that’s it for this mood.

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